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nicspics · Crypto made simple

What if Bitcoin takes X%?

Pick some big markets, pick how much of them Bitcoin might hold, and see what one bitcoin would be worth.

The share is an assumption, not a forecast. Not financial advice.

1. Which markets count?

Sizes are in trillions of US dollars ($T). You can change them. Total picked:

2. What share does Bitcoin take?

3. When, and how many coins?

Implied price of 1 BTC

Price at a glance

Each box is the price of 1 BTC for that share and year, using the markets you ticked. The small line shows how many times today's price that is. Your current pick has a gold outline. Swipe sideways on small screens.

Shares are assumptions, not forecasts.

under 1×1–10×over 10× today's price

When would BTC hit $X?

This is the share of the ticked markets Bitcoin would need to hold to reach that price.

How it works

  1. Add up the markets you picked (and grow them to your chosen year).
  2. Take your share of that total. That is the money "in" Bitcoin.
  3. Divide by the number of bitcoins. That is the price of one coin.

Implied BTC price = (market size × BTC share) ÷ BTC supply

Sources

Growth rates of 7% (stocks) and 6% (money) are assumptions. Art counts only top collectors. The BIS bond total is a sum of reporting countries, not one world figure. Bonds plus loans may overlap slightly, since banks hold some bonds. Mark Moss's basket is about $996T. Loans are now included here too. The totals are close, but our loans figure is about $32T bigger, and his art estimate is much broader (about $27T vs our $2.6T).

This is a way to think about size, not a price target. Small shares of huge markets still add up to big numbers, and that is the point of the exercise.

Questions? Read the FAQ and the Methodology & sources.

Model idea: market size × share, popularized by Mark Moss.

Related topic: Bitcoin, made simple