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Methodology & sources
Not financial advice.
The formula
Implied BTC price = (market size × BTC share) ÷ BTC supply
Example: 1% of $992.3T ÷ 20,098,843 coins ≈ $493,697.
Inputs
Default total of all seven markets: $992.3T. Swipe sideways on small screens.
| Input | Value | Growth/yr | Date | Source | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $29.9T | 8% | WGC stock end-Q2 2026 × Kitco spot $4,177/oz, Oct 16 2026 | World Gold Council; Kitco | link · link 2 |
| Stocks | $157.8T | 7% (assumption) | End-2025 | SIFMA Capital Markets Fact Book 2026 | link |
| Bonds | $162.4T | 5.0% (BIS 5-yr) | 2026-Q1, sum of 49 reporting countries | BIS debt securities statistics (WS_NA_SEC_DSS) | link · link 2 |
| Loans (bank credit) | $101.9T | 4.5% (BIS 5-yr) | 2026-Q1 | BIS total credit statistics (WS_TC Q.5A.P.B.M.USD.A) | link |
| Real estate | $393.3T | 3.3% (derived) | Start of 2025 (published Sep 29 2025) | Savills | link |
| Money | $144.41T | 6% (assumption) | Mixed dates, newest Jun 2026 | M2 Index aggregator (IMF/World Bank/ECB data) | link · link 2 |
| Art | $2.564T | 5.2% (derived) | 2024 | Deloitte Private & ArtTactic, Art & Finance Report 2025 | link |
| BTC supply | 20,098,843 today; 21M future | n/a | Oct 16 2026 | blockchain.info | link |
| BTC price (default) | $82,200 | n/a | Oct 16 2026 (mempool.space $82,194 at 7:05 AM ET) | mempool.space | link |
How growth is applied
Every market grows from 2026 at its own yearly rate, compounded: size × (1 + rate)years. For example, 2030 is 4 years of growth for every market, even when a source is dated earlier. If you fill in the optional override box, that one rate is used for every market. Future years use the 21M supply cap.
Caveats
- Bonds and loans may overlap slightly. Banks hold some bonds, and BIS bank credit includes the bonds those banks hold. Treat the total as a little too high.
- The bond total is a sum of 49 reporting countries, not one official world figure. A few countries report market value instead of face value.
- Art is only the top-collector slice: art held by ultra-high-net-worth people. All art worldwide would be bigger.
- Crypto use isn't BTC-only. Money moving into crypto can go to other coins and stablecoins, so the share of these markets Bitcoin takes may be smaller than the share crypto takes overall.
- Sizes in US dollars include exchange-rate effects. Stock (7%) and money (6%) growth rates are assumptions.
- The share is an assumption, not a forecast.
Compared with Mark Moss's basket
| Market | This calculator | Mark Moss 2025 basket |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | $29.9T | $30.99T |
| Stocks | $157.8T | $152.48T |
| Bonds | $162.4T | $160.70T |
| Loans / other credit | $101.9T | $70.22T |
| Real estate | $393.3T | $408.79T |
| Money | $144.41T | $144.00T |
| Art | $2.564T (top collectors) | $26.93T (broad, self-labelled unverified) |
| Total | ≈ $992.3T | $994.13T (≈ $995.87T with BTC) |
The totals are close, but they are built differently. His loan figure is smaller and his art figure is about 10× ours.
Change log
- Oct 16, 2026: First version with placeholder sizes. Replaced them with sourced sizes and per-market growth (WGC/Kitco, SIFMA, Savills, M2 aggregator, Deloitte/ArtTactic, blockchain.info). Moved bonds to BIS ($162.4T, 5.0%) and added Loans (bank credit) from BIS ($101.9T, 4.5%). Added the “Price at a glance” table and the “When would BTC hit $X?” view. Published this FAQ and methodology page.
Inspired by Mark Moss's Bitcoin Valuation Lab.