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Bitcoin Valuation Basics (PDF)

A short beginner guide, six pages long. It covers:

The share-of-market model in one formula
Every input, with its source and date
A price table for different shares and years
The tech adoption S-curve chart
How the goal calculator works

Download the PDF Open in browser

PDF, about 0.7 MB. Compiled Oct 16, 2026.

Everything inside is scenarios, not forecasts.

Takeaway

If you're new, start with the model and the inputs page. Once you see where every number comes from, the big headline prices stop feeling like magic and start feeling like math you can check.

Inspired by Mark Moss's Bitcoin Valuation Lab.